Australia should brace for a wave of business failures and growing mortgage stress, the RBA warns, as support measures fall away

Australia’s central bank expects the number of small business failures will “rise substantially” as income and loan pressure builds.

With income support measures and more than $200 billion in loan deferrals set to expire, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) says between 10% and 15% of businesses in hard-hit sectors won’t make it as they run out of cash.

“These businesses are in a tenuous position and are particularly vulnerable to a further deterioration in trading conditions or the removal of support measures,” the RBA wrote in its Financial Stability Review published on Friday.

“Survey evidence indicates that about one-quarter of small businesses currently receiving income support would close if the support measures were removed now, before an improvement in trading conditions.”

While the RBA acknowledged there was “a high degree of uncertainty about the magnitude and timing” of those failures, the prognosis doesn’t look good.

For one, the number

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1) Global Services PMIs (Sep) – 05/10 – after the slowdown seen in Q2, the manufacturing sector has managed to hold up reasonably well. The recovery in the services sector has been another story with the recent flash PMIs in Germany and France slipping back into contraction territory. This is an increasing concern, particularly for the weaker countries like Italy and Spain who tried to boost economic activity by way of tourism in the summer months, and who now appear to be paying the price for that with increased infection rates, with Spain especially having to impose new stringent lockdowns. The additional imposition of quarantines and other travel restrictions in the last two months is likely to see further economic deterioration in September. In August Spain and Italy saw contractions of 47.7 and 47.1, and it’s unlikely that September will be much better, at a time when France services PMI

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